How Banks Use Forecasting to Determine Your Mortgage Loan

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Mortgage rates change constantly. Several decades ago your local bank used to set a rate for that day, which may or may not have changed during the subsequent week. That no longer happens as all financial institutions use a complicated method of forecasting to determine loan rates.

Looking Back to Look Forward

The home mortgage industry depends heavily on forecasting. However, in order to produce a viable forecast, lenders must look back to predict what could reliably happen in the future. Credit history is only one of the qualitative and environmental factors in CECL, which also takes a variety of information produced by Wall Street to determine interest rates. Banks will look into the financial, lending, and credit history of a potential borrower to determine the risk associated with lending them money.

The Impact on Lending

Banks will look into the financial, lending, and credit history of a potential borrower to determine the risk associated with lending them money. Having a good credit history is a prime reason why borrowers with good credit usually get access to more favorable rates. The inclusion of CECL in forecasting also plays a part in loan rates as lenders must determine the risk for possible losses over the life of the loan. Lenders also have formulas for different segments of the market, such as borrowers who are seeking 15-year loans, 30-year loans, jumbo mortgages, loans for multi-unit housing, and the like. In other words, forecasting can be different for each segment of the home loan market, resulting in different rates.

How Wall Street Affects Loan Rates

The financial information provided by Wall Street plays a big role. Bonds known as mortgage-backed securities (MBS) play a large factor in loan rates. When investors think the price of MBS is good, demand is high. When the price of mortgage-backed securities rises due to high demand, mortgage rates drop. There are other factors that affect mortgage rate forecasting. One of these factors is inflation rates. Little to no inflation leads to increased mortgage bond demand. Another contributing factor to mortgage rate forecasting is when wars and other disasters occur. Because these events are so uncertain, mortgage bond demands are severely affected.

Determining mortgage interest rates is often as dependent on forecasting supply and demand. Those in the market for a home loan should monitor a variety of economic reports to determine when the best time will be to secure a mortgage loan. By timing everything just right, you’ll be able to get the home of your dreams.